A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
